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Will Generic Domains and other premiums hold their value in the coming downturn?

Friday, October 24, 2008
By admin

 

This is the question most domain investors are asking, or should be asking themselves. It doesn’t matter if your strategy is long or short term, price fluctuations affect us all, especially when they’re on the down side.

There are many people who have been voicing their opinions, from the Industry greats, to your average domainer in the forums, and all of them have one thing in common. None of them has a crystal ball! Not one of these commentators knows where the price of domains are headed. Sure they can speculate, study the price trends, discuss it amongst their peers, but not one of them can tell you where the market will go.

There has never been an economic situation like this and the impact it’s going to have on businesses and individuals could be truly shocking. I think by the middle of next year we’ll have a better idea of what’s going to be ahead of us and I don’t think the view will be too pretty.

 

I’ve read a lot of posts recently from fellow domainers who say that, “prices are at rock bottom, confidence has left the market, now is the time to go bargain hunting.” This is something I completely disagree with! Yes there has been trouble in the banks and Financial Markets, but the real economy is only JUST starting to feel the pinch. Take a look at the earnings reports coming out. Most companies outside the financial sector have reported pretty steady earnings up to this point, but I have a feeling the year end results will be a completely different picture and the earnings forecasts will make bleak reading indeed.

There will be layoffs, tax hikes to pay for the massive budget deficits that most western governments have burdened themselves with, and further drops in real estate prices. Then we have the heavily indebted consumer who has sadly run out of steam. None of these things seem like good news to me, so I’m not expecting a quick recovery in domain prices any time soon.

 

Sure some areas of the market will recover quicker than others and many of the fads that cropped up (LLLL.com) are likely to be the areas hardest hit.

So the point I’m trying to make is: “don’t believe the hype that you read.”

Many people would have you see the future through rose tinted spectacles, but don’t just take the advice of one Guru, look around and make your mind up slowly as to where you think things domains are headed.

Still there are plenty of bargains to be had now and I’m sure there’ll be many in the future. So if you happen to come across one of these snap it up and put it away for when the sun shines again.

Oh yes and keep buying my domains as they are only going to go up in value ;-)

 

James



8 Comments »

  1. by Scott Alliy |  October 24, 2008, 2:54 pm  

    Well said James, nobody does know. One thing is that with every adversity comes opportunity to those that are alert.

    What may and probably will happen is that laid off people will migrate to the Internet in search of home business opportunities and they will need good domain names for their business.

    While the sales may not be as great in value the number of potential sales should present opportunities for domainers that hold good domain names.

  2. by Art |  October 24, 2008, 5:49 pm  

    I have been saying this for a while now, we are no where near bottom and it will get worse. Domains will drop in value, and only good generics will stay, we will see millions of domains dropped in the coming year.

  3. by Liverpoolian |  October 25, 2008, 6:37 pm  

    This is a difficult year, thanks to Bush. Its really diffciult to speculate.

  4. by schlomotion |  October 25, 2008, 7:49 pm  

    First of all how many times have you sold your domain to end users? How many times have you sen end users go to Traffic conferences? Mostly domainers buy my names. End users want to give you crap for your names. Unless you got a premium like porn or stock.com. The domain gurus and bloggers always say “what a great business we have! How we are unique, different then a stock investment.” We domainers ruined our business with the “down turn” All of a sudden our unique business became the stock market crisis. One minute were hyping how lucky we are what a great business we have then we are shooting ourselves in the foot by hyping how bad are industry is and we keep scaring off investors and potential domainers. What we should be realizing is YES OUR PPC AND INTERNET SALES HAS SLOWED DOWN. THE ECONOMY IS NOT SHOPPING A LOT NOW. HOWEVER…..DOMAINERS SHOULD STILL BE BUYING DOMAINS AS A FUTURE INVESTMENT OR DEVELOPED SITE. OTHERWISE IF YOU DON’T BELIEVE IN THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET YOU SHOULDN’T BE BUYING DOMAINS.

  5. by admin |  October 25, 2008, 11:05 pm  

    Thanks for your comments guys.
    Schlomotion you make some good points. as to my sales to end users - it’s just under double figures and only on one of those occasions was i approached by them.
    As to Traffic - well never having attended an event i really can’t say, but i would imagine it’s not many.
    Yes domainers should be buying domains - but would you rather buy now or possibly in 2 months time for a 10 - 20% discount?
    Most people out there are a little scared and rightly so. I for one am not going to blame anyone for showing caution in this environment.

  6. by Damir |  October 28, 2008, 8:30 am  

    The Share market is driven by FEAR and greed (Bear and Bull market) so investing into domain names is no different - people speculate.

    If you are a domain name owner do NOT sell your Internet Real Estate next for NOTHING.

    There are two kinds of people, those who do the work and those who take the credit. Try to be in the first group; there is less competition there. - Indira Gandhi

  7. [...] I skim through the forums I see quite a lot of threads from people new to this business titled: I have $10,000 to spend on [...]

  8. by Randy Hoelscher |  December 31, 2008, 5:20 am  

    Interesting thread.

    It is my opinion that the LLLL domains that make no sense will drop off a lot.
    I also do not seen the value of many geo domains either. I would expect that domain names for smaller towns will be deemed worth less (not necessarily worthless). After all, if you live in a town with a population of 30,000 you are not likely to need a web directory to find a local pizza shop.

    I agree with other posters that the generic domains will remain strong. There will be more junky domains dropped, but the owners of good domains will hang on to them rather than drop the price. In what other industry can you maintain an asset worth four, five, six, or even seven figures for about eight bucks a year. If I owned one or more of these gems I would sell the car to renew them.

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